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#US2024: 5 Takeaways From The Latest Flurry Of Harris-Trump Polls

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A plethora of polling has emerged in the past couple of days, giving fresh insights into the race for the White House.

More than 20 swing-state polls entirely conducted after the Sep. 10 debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump are now in the public domain.

Harris was widely perceived to have gotten the better of Trump in that encounter, though the question of how much her win has shifted the race is much cloudier.

Almost none of the latest polls were conducted recently enough to encompass reaction to the second apparent attempt on Trump’s life, which took place Sunday at his West Palm Beach, Fla., golf club.

Here are the main takeaways from the latest polls.

It’s better to be Harris than Trump — slightly

Overall, Team Harris is likely to be happier about the latest polls than Team Trump.

Nationally, Harris got some results that suggest she has slightly increased her lead over the former president. A Morning Consult poll put her up by 6 percentage points — her largest advantage to date in surveys from that organization — while surveys from ABC News/Ipsos and Yahoo News/YouGov put Harris ahead by 4 points and 5 points, respectively.

There were some eye-popping results for Harris in swing states too, though they were the exception rather than the rule.

The vice president’s campaign team will be happy about any reputable poll putting her up by 5 points in Pennsylvania, as a Quinnipiac University poll did; or by the same margin in Michigan, as a Marist College poll of likely voters did.

In the forecast maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris is now given a 55 percent chance of prevailing in November.

It’s important not to exaggerate the meaning of such a number, which points to an extremely tight race. But whatever momentum there is seems to be favoring Harris.

Trump has plenty of reasons for hope

Trump and his supporters need not be too disconsolate about the findings from the latest polls.

While overall there has been the appearance of a small trend toward Harris, it’s nowhere close to definitive. The debate, though it may have helped the vice president by 1 or 2 points, hasn’t come close to transforming the race.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday found the race to be tied nationwide among likely voters, with Trump up 1 point among all registered voters. A Fox News poll indicated Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead in both categories.

Team Trump can also take encouragement from several swing-state polls themselves, including a series from The Hill and Emerson College.

The Emerson polls have Trump up by 1 point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, suggesting the former president could again demolish chunks of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” The Emerson polls also have Trump up by 3 points in Georgia and by 1 point in Arizona, both states that President Biden carried in 2020.

Meanwhile, a Marist poll in Pennsylvania has the race there exactly tied — quite a contrast from surveys from Quinnipiac University and the New York Times/Siena College that have Harris up by 5 points and 4 points, respectively.

It’s tough to separate the signal from the noise

Pollsters and political scientists have a justifiable dislike of their surveys being cast as definitive down to the last decimal point.

Any survey on any subject has a margin of error and is susceptible to “noise” — numbers that shift because of the variables inherent in the polling process rather than because public opinion has actually changed.

The most recent spate of poll includes some eyebrow-raising results.

The New York Times/Siena College poll, for example, found Harris to be leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania while tied with Trump nationwide.

The finding sits incongruously with recent history.

Biden won the 2020 national popular vote by more than 4 points but prevailed by just a little more than 1 point in Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by roughly seven-tenths of a point while losing the national vote to Hillary Clinton by about 2 points.

There are other results that at least seem unusual.

The most recent polls from Quinnipiac, for instance, give Harris a much narrower lead in Wisconsin (1 point) than in Michigan (5 points) or Pennsylvania (5 points) — despite The Hill/DDHQ polling averages showing Harris with a larger lead in the Badger State.

Again, such outcomes do not undercut the reliability of any pollster. They simply underscore that it’s an inexact science.

When all is said and done, it’s still a coin flip

Every poll is going to be scrutinized closely with fewer than 50 days left in such a close and intense race.

But for all the reading of the polling tea leaves, the 2024 race is basically a coin flip.

The Hill/DDHQ polling averages in the key states tell the story. Harris leads by about a point in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, and by 2 points in Wisconsin. In the other three battlegrounds, the margins are fractions of a point.

There are numerous factors that could change that picture, including the millions of dollars each campaign is spending on TV advertising, Trump’s propensity to outperform his polls, or the capacity of a female Democratic nominee to benefit from a surge of support in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.

The polls keep telling us the best issues for either side

Some contours of this year’s race have remained fairly consistent — at least since Harris supplanted Biden as the Democratic nominee.

The abortion question is pretty clearly the strongest electoral card in the Democrats’ hands.

The New York Times/Siena College Poll, for example, showed Harris with a 13-point advantage among likely voters in terms of which candidate was trusted more on abortion.

Immigration is, electorally speaking, the mirror image of abortion — a big and emotive topic that plainly helps Republicans. Trump held a 12-point advantage on the topic in the Times poll.

Perhaps crucially, Trump was 13 points clear in the Times poll on the economy. That’s roughly in line with other surveys that give the former president the advantage on the topic that often ranks highest among voters’ concerns.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

 

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Furious Fubara Attacks IGP Over Contentious Rivers Council Poll

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Rivers Governor Siminialayi Fubara was angry when he arrived the premises of the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RISIEC) around 1am on Friday.

The Governor stormed the place with some government officials following intelligence that a deployment of armed policemen had come to take over RISIEC’s office.

Fubara was particularly indignant at the Inspector-General of Police as he attacked him. The Governor said: “We came here this morning when we heard according to what they called themselves, the Nigerian police, are coming to take over the premises of the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission and I had to come myself to find out why will such a thing happen.

“What I heard is that one DC Operation brought them here. He withdrew policemen that were already here protecting this place so that ill officers will take over the place.

“But I have to say this on a very strong note. We have been taking enough nonsense from this institution. Everybody is aware of the court judgement. Did the ruling specify anywhere that election should not hold?

“It said don’t give voter register. What are we doing with it? Police don’t provide security. Is it the same thing as blocking the election? I don’t know what the relationship is between the IGP and one person who claims he has so much power in the state.

“I don’t know the relationship because it is beginning to go beyond the normal professional relationship. I said the government wrote a letter with the judgement that we have to him and what he is acting on is what he called the judgement he got from the Federal High Court.

“Even if we go by the Federal High Court judgement did it say election should be banned? Did Lifu, that judge, that gave that fraudulent judgement say no election. Rather he technically said don’t provide, don’t provide security.

“We don’t need your security. We will provide our own security. After all it happened in Anambra. This election must hold. If you like whatever you want to do, do it. The election must hold, results will be declared and people will be sworn in.

“What kind of country is this? And when it comes to the issue of Rivers State it becomes different .

“You have to be ashamed of yourself you call yourself IGP. Enough is enough. If I go back and hear anything, I will come here. This is my property and you don’t have any power whatsoever to bar me from entering it.

“Just try it and part of your history as a wicked and fraudulent IGP will include shooting Fubara. I think I have given you enough respect.

“Well let me say it to all Rivers indigenes everyone residing in Rivers, election will hold. Anything that wants to happen, let it happen”.

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Nobody Supported Me, I Have No Godfather In Politics – Speaker Abbas

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The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Tajudeen Abbas has distanced himself from godfatherism in Nigerian politics.

Abbas said nobody sponsored or supported his emergence in politics.

He disclosed this during an interactive session with select public secondary school students, where he narrated how he struggled to fend for himself while growing up.

The Speaker urged young Nigerians to believe in themselves and cautioned against becoming unduly dependent on their parents for survival.

According to the Speaker: “By the time I reached the age of 19, I was already a homeowner.

“A homeowner at 19, I built my own house based on my sweat. I never needed one single contribution from any member of my family.

“By the time I finished secondary school, something very very dramatic happened. I went to my father and told him that I had come to say bye-bye to him and that I was going to the National Youth Service.

“He was lying down, he stood up and looked at me and said, Abbas when did you go to the university, when did you go to the university?

“I said, Baba, I’ve been studying all these years; he never knew. Because he never sees me coming to ask him, ‘Give me school fees,’ give me money for books, give me this, give me that.

“That is the kind of environment I grew up, believing that I can do it for myself.

“And even when I ventured into politics, I’m probably one of the few you find in this country who does not have a godfather in politics.

“Nobody ever supported me or sponsored me, nobody; I didn’t hide under anybody’s umbrella to be elected or to be re-elected.

“I believe in myself and serve my people diligently. They appreciated and they kept re-electing me.

“Believe in yourself, be very hardworking, be very prayerful, be very honest, be very transparent.”

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Benue PDP Crisis: Nobody Has Right To Disband G14 – Ortom

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Former Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom has said nobody has the right to disband the G-14 which is a pressure group of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP in the state.

He stated this on Tuesday when the G14 paid a courtesy visit to him at his Makurdi residence.

Ortom charged the G-14 to continue to be the conscience of the party and continue to encourage and support the leadership of the party at all levels, beginning from the national to the ward.

He appreciated the G-14 for the visit and their selfless sacrifice for the party.

Chief Ortom used the opportunity to invite members of the party to the state congress scheduled for Thursday.

The leader of the group, Dr Laha Dzever commended Chief Ortom for the smooth conduct of the ward and local government congresses in the state.

He expressed confidence in the leadership of Chief Ortom to resolve any dispute within the party.

Dzever debunked the insinuation that G-14 was formed by an individual.

He disclosed that they formed the G-14 after Ortom became governor of Benue State in 2015 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and in their bid to rescue the party, the group was formed from elders from the 14 Tiv-speaking local governments.

Dzever assured Chief Ortom that as the leader of the party in the state, the G-14 are solidly behind him.

He restated the age-long tradition of the party which makes a governor the leader of the party in the state and where the governor is not a member of the party, the immediate past governor is the leader.

David Amo who spoke for Benue North East Senatorial District stated that the PDP was one and the leader of the party remains Chief Ortom.

Samuel Utov wondered why someone would claim to have disbanded G-14 when the G-14 is not the creation of the one who purportedly disbanded the group.

He stressed that even Chief Ortom who is the leader of the party in the state by virtue of his status as the immediate past governor cannot disband G-14, adding that only God can dissolve G-14.

Speaking for the women, the immediate past chairman of Ushongo Local Government, Veronica Gajir called on Chief Ortom to galvanize the party to return to power in 2027.

Speaking for the youths, Samuel Akough commended Ortom for his leadership of the party and, assuring him of the support of the youths.

Speaking on behalf of Sankera, the pioneer State Youth Leader of the PDP in Benue State, Joseph Nengean appreciated Ortom for the security in the area while he was governor, adding that the security situation in the area has deteriorated and prayed that no weapon fashioned against him shall prosper.

Chief Atsaga Anemba who spoke for Jechira restated Ortom’s leadership of the party, adding that it is the convention of the party and the reason elders of the party across Tiv land are behind the immediate past governor.

Speaking for the Jechira intermediate area, Elder Shimawa Adzaigba called on the G-14 to resolve the crisis in the party.

The National Ex-officio representing Benue State, Ortese Gbegi who spoke for Jemgbagh commended Ortom for his leadership of the party and smooth conduct of the ward and local government congresses in the state.

Responding on behalf of the 14 elected local government chairmen, the PDP chairman of Katsina-ala local government, Terseer Adigoh and PDP Chairman of Makurdi local government, Paul Tion all pledged their unflinching loyalty to Ortom and assured him of their support as he stirs the affairs of the party in the state.

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