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Dangote Refinery: Dangers Of A Single Narrative – Sifting Facts From Emotion – RICHARD AKINOLA
When the Dangote refinery controversy blew up, naturally as someone wired to support anyone l perceive to be oppressed, this time, Dangote, l lined up in support of the richest man in Africa.
I perceived he was being unduly treated by the Downstream and Midstream regulators, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). For days, l had heated arguments with people with opposing views on this matter. However, Ademola Adigun, one person l respect on this app, cautioned that people should not be too emotive on this matter but seek knowledge. I took that as a challenge.
Subsequently, in an attempt not to look foolish out of emotive consideration, l opened my mind to critically study the issues involved and even the nitty gritty technical details of the oil and gas system. And because l owe an obligation to educate people, l had to open up myself to information, researching on this issue and the petroleum sector, devoid of emotion.
While several groups of people, including one of my constituencies -the Civil society, have made pilgrimages to the humongous site of the Dangote refinery, unarguably, the largest private refinery in World, l decided, what in my opinion, was sifting facts from emotion. The issue has even reverberated in the hallowed Chambers of the House of Representatives, where the adhoc committee set up to investigate the issue, among other issues in the upstream and midstream petroleum section, was dissolved yesterday.
In a report today by Daily Nigeria, the Speaker, Abbas Tajuddeen, dissolved the committee over alleged compromise by some members of the committee who had exculpated the richest man in Africa, even before the assignment kicked off.
From my findings, there are three major critical issues that are affecting the operations of Dangote Refinery
1) CRUDE SUPPLY-FEEDSTOCK
It does appear that when Dangote was building the refinery, there were no proper arrangements on ground on how he will get feedstock for the refinery. His refinery is the largest single train refinery in the world.
Nobody builds and opens a refinery of this magnitude without refinery agreement to get feed stock. Dangote didn’t have a feedstock agreement for his refinery.
I have read where some people claimed that he has an agreement with NNPC Ltd but that arrangements was not a feed stock agreement. What happened with the NNPC arrangement was that during the project building phase, Dangote Refinery project got stuck and NNPC Ltd got the approval of the President to take equity.
Subsequently, the NNPC got a loan and paid $1bn as part of the 20 per cent equity while the rest was to be paid in crude supply.
The lack of feedstock was part of Dangote’s problem and he is now sourcing feedstock when the refinery is powered. So far, NNPC Ltd has given him 39 cargoes.
2) CRUDE OIL PRICES
Dangote’s claim that IOCs are selling crude oil to him at $6 per barrel above international price doesn’t seem to be true. What l discovered is that Crude oil has different grades. What he got from the US is WTI and the price is not the same as others.
Another key issue under pricing is that the margin of sale of crude oil is different because it is an international business. There is what is called market margin and it is usually from $1.5 to up to $20 per barrel.
There are several crude grades and Dangote Refinery uses different grades of crude to blend. So, when Dangote said he is importing from the United States, it is because he needs it as part of the grades to be used to blend in his refinery to produce petroleum products. His refinery needs several percentage of Bonny light, WTI and others to be able to blend very well. But he is using the fact that he imports from US to give the impression that he is importing from US and other countries, when in actual fact, is that he is sourcing different crude grades to blend.
Another critical point of under pricing is that the marketers buy this crude grades and add their own margin which ranges from $1.5 to $20 but the Nigerian government is giving it to Dangote at a margin of $0.5 per barrel which to me seems to me to be a good deal for him.
One other contentious issue is that Dangote is also persuading the regulator, to persuade the International Oil Companies to give him crude but the IOCs cannot do that because they have Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Nigerian government. Through the PSC, the IOCs produce, give Nigeria government its share and take the share of their crude and sell to marketers. Dangote didn’t enter any agreement with the IOCs to give him feedstock. What people must also know is that these IOCs borrow money from banks, invest in equipments, drill the oil fields, give government its share and take theirs, sell, recover their costs and make further investments.
Also, Dangote wants to use the local refinery obligation to obfuscate issues but this is not working for him because the local refinery obligation, according to the PIA, is based on a willing buyer and willing seller arrangement. This means the product must be available, and the parties must agree on the price in line with Section 109 of the PIA, which deals with the National Crude Oil Requirement of Refineries. The section states that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shall base the allocation of the domestic crude oil supply obligation applicable to the respective lessees on the National Crude Oil Demand requirement supply curve, which is the supply curve of crude oil or condensate that can be supplied on a voluntary basis at the prevailing international market price.
3) DOWNSTREAM
On the controversial issue of licensing of Dangote Refinery, while it has the license to build the plant, the refinery does not have license that covers other parts of its operations.
For monopoly, Dangote is asking the regulator to direct all oil marketers to get petroleum products from his refinery. But the question to ask is: Can Dangote guarantee Nigeria three billion liters of petroleum products per day in strategic national reserves for 32 days and not sell it? As a business entity, for Dangote to keep these products in strategic national reserves without selling them will lead to huge losses for him.
For the regulator to give Dangote that monopoly that he asking means that the business of other oil marketers would be killed and this is against the policy of deregulation because marketers should be allowed to import so there can be healthy competition.
Another critical point to note is that Dangote Refinery operates in a free trade zone and he will be exempted from paying tax to government. This is a loss of revenue to the government. The petroleum products from the refinery would be sold in foreign currency instead of naira to Nigerians as oil marketers who want to buy from there will fill form M (Importers form) in the bank.
Another contentious issue is the sulphur content in the petroleum products. It was reported in the media that the NMDPRA has minimum of 11 staff members in Dangote Refinery and all other local Refineries. The test of the petroleum products from the refinery are done daily and sent to the regulator. This means the regulator knows what they are saying when they stated that the product is inferior.
One worrisome aspect of the whole arrangement is that Dangote will need a minimum of $1.8bn working capital to operate the refinery and no bank would be willing to give it to him because he appears to be at a financial tight corner.
This was further confirmed with yesterday’s International Fitch ratings which downgraded the Dangote industries Limited, reflecting the precarious liquidity position of the business conglomerate.
The report stated inter alia that the group’s liquidity position, “followed lower than expected disposal proceeds, operational and financial underperformance compared to our prior expectations, also affected by local currency devaluation, and lack of contracted backup funding to repay its significant debt facilities maturing on 31 August 2024….We view the lack of DIL’s audited accounts for 2023 as a corporate governance issue. The RWN reflects uncertainty related to the group’s ability to refinance maturing debt.
“Lack of tangible steps to refinance or repay the maturing debt would lead to further downgrade while we do not expect a positive rating action until the company’s liquidity position improves substantially.”
I love Dangote and his can-do spirit, the reason l initially was emotive when this controversy broke when l felt he was being unduly treated but my study of the whole scenario has changed my perspective. I want him to succeed but he too has to do the needful. The monopolistic mindset which he carried from his cement business cannot work in the deregulated petroleum sector. More importantly, he needs a pragmatic approach to solve his liquidity challenges in this petroleum sector, which, with the benefit of hindsight, he underestimated, based on the seeming hand-in-gloves relationship he had with the previous leadership of the CBN, where it appeared he had “easy” access to funds.
Soji Adekunmbi, an Abuja based public policy analyst, in an article in The Cable, proffered solutions to Dangote to enable him navigate the humongous financial quagmire he seems to have found himself, when he posited: “A few options are available to Dangote but the most viable of them is that he should consider divesting some of his shares in the refinery. It may seem a difficult option but it is the best for him given the circumstances.
There are business entities who took a similar path when confronted with some of the challenges seemingly facing Dangote. In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government sold Aramco, the national oil company to the public when it faced difficulties.
Even Microsoft founder, Bill Gates sold off a majority of his stake in the company retaining a mere five percent interest in the business. Gates took that route after facing anti-trade court cases following Microsoft’s monopolistic nature, which had caused the collapse of several IT companies.
Dangote should do the needful by selling shares to Nigerians as it is obvious given the intricate nature of business in the oil and gas sector particularly the huge capital outlay required to keep a business going, he cannot pull it off alone.”
News
Plateau Crisis: Tinubu Summons Gov Mutfwang, Orders Security Crackdown
President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday met with top security and intelligence chiefs to review the recent wave of violence in Plateau State and has summoned Governor Caleb Mutfwang to Abuja for urgent consultations.
The attack, which occurred on Sunday in Angwan Rukuba community, Jos North Local Government Area, left at least 28 people dead and many others injured.
Briefing journalists in Abuja, Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, described the incident as regrettable but emphasised that it does not indicate a breakdown of security.
He added that security agencies have launched clearance operations to prevent reprisal attacks and reiterated the Federal Government’s deep concern and condolences to the people of Plateau State.
According to the minister, the President’s meeting with security chiefs aims to assess the situation and implement decisive measures toward a lasting solution.
He said, “A few hours ago, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, held a high-level meeting with the nation’s top security and intelligence chiefs to review the situation and take further decisive steps towards arriving at a lasting solution. Following this meeting, the Executive Governor of Plateau State, Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang, has been invited by President Tinubu to further deliberate and chart a coordinated path towards lasting peace and security.
“The outcome of the meeting between President Tinubu and Governor Mutfwang will be made public in due course. These actions underscore the seriousness with which the Federal Government is treating this matter and its firm commitment to ensuring that all necessary actions are taken promptly and effectively.”
The Minister also stressed, ”While this incident is deeply regrettable, it is important to place it in context. Plateau State has, over time, experienced localised security challenges linked to communal tensions and criminal activities. What occurred does not represent a breakdown of national security, but rather a criminal act within a known conflict-prone area—one that is being actively and decisively addressed by the authorities.
“The federal government has directed all security agencies to ensure that those responsible for this heinous act are identified, apprehended, and brought to justice. “There will be no safe haven for criminal elements anywhere in Nigeria. Ongoing operations are already generating actionable intelligence, and we are confident that those behind this attack will be held accountable.
“Let me reassure all Nigerians that the security situation in Plateau State is under control and is being actively managed. The Federal Government remains fully committed to protecting lives and property across the country, and we will continue to strengthen our intelligence capabilities, operational readiness, and inter-agency coordination to stay ahead of emerging threats.
“We urge all citizens to remain calm, law-abiding, and to cooperate fully with security agencies. It is also important to avoid the spread of unverified information that could heighten tensions or undermine ongoing efforts to restore peace.
“Nigeria’s unity remains strong, and we must not allow criminal elements to divide our communities. The Federal Government will continue to act decisively, in collaboration with the Plateau State Government and all relevant stakeholders, to ensure lasting peace and security.
“Nigeria will not yield to fear. We will protect our people, and we will prevail.”
The Minister also exonerated the security agencies, saying that they took swift action to contain the situation.
He said, “Let me assure Nigerians that security agencies responded immediately to the incident. Troops under Operation Enduring Peace were rapidly mobilised to the scene following distress calls.
“The military and other security agencies cordoned off the affected area, secured key access routes, and launched targeted search-and-clearance operations to track down the perpetrators. “These swift actions ensured that the situation was quickly contained and prevented further escalation.
“This response is part of a broader and sustained Federal Government security architecture in Plateau State and the wider North-Central region. The Nigerian Armed Forces have continued to carry out clearance operations and intelligence-led missions across vulnerable communities following attacks recorded in recent months. Reinforced surveillance and troop deployments have also been implemented in high-risk areas, supported by joint military-police patrols and strengthened rapid response mechanisms. “These coordinated efforts are designed to neutralise threats proactively and maintain stability.”
He also added, “At the national level, the Federal Government remains resolute in its commitment to security, as demonstrated through ongoing targeted military offensives and strategic deployments aimed at dismantling criminal and insurgent networks across the country. These efforts reflect a comprehensive and evolving approach to safeguarding lives and property.
“The Plateau State Government has also taken decisive and complementary measures in coordination with federal authorities. A 48-hour curfew was imposed in Jos North immediately after the incident to stabilise the security environment and support ongoing operations. The state government continues to work closely with security agencies to prevent reprisals, restore calm, and facilitate investigations.”
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Tinubu’s $6bn External Borrowing Request Gets Senate Nod
The Nigerian Senate has approved President Bola Tinubu’s request for a $6 billion external loan.
The approval was granted approximately three to four hours after the request letters were read by the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio on the Senate floor.
The red chamber of the National Assembly approved the loans after the presentation and consideration of a report by the Senator Aliyu Wamakko-led Committee on Local and Foreign Debts.
JomogNews had reported earlier that President Tinubu’s latest loan request was contained in two separate letters addressed to the President of the Senate, which were read during plenary on Tuesday.
In the first letter, Tinubu requested the approval to establish a structured total return swap (TRS) external financing programme of up to $5 billion with First Abu Dhabi Bank of the United Arab Emirates.
The President, in the second letter, also asked the Senate to approve a $1 billion UK export finance loan facility arranged by Citibank, London branch.
He said that the loan would be used for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Lagos Port Complex and Tin Can Island Port.
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When 8 million Customers Trust You, Safety Cannot Be an Afterthought
Nigeria’s digital banking revolution is raising the stakes for consumer trust. The question is whether the industry is rising to meet them.
Nigeria’s relationship with digital banking has changed almost beyond recognition in a decade. Where cash once dominated every transaction, from the roadside market to the corporate boardroom, mobile apps, instant transfers and USSD codes have reshaped how tens of millions of Nigerians interact with their money every single day.
The figures speak for themselves: point-of-sale transactions surged to a record N18 trillion in 2024, a 69 per cent increase from the year before, and the number of POS terminals in operation more than doubled to 5.5 million. Mobile banking is now the most widely used digital financial service in the country, with four in five users having accessed it within any given 90-day window.
This is, by any honest measure, an extraordinary story of financial inclusion and technological adoption. But it is an incomplete story if told without its other half.
Behind the growth curves and transaction volumes, a quieter and more troubling story has been unfolding. According to the 2024 Nigeria Consumer Protection Survey published by Innovations for Poverty Action, nearly one in four digital financial services users reported experiencing unexpected fees, charges or fraud attempts in the past year. Of those who encountered a problem, only half sought any form of formal redress. That silence is not apathy. It is the sound of eroded confidence: customers who have concluded that raising a complaint is unlikely to produce results.
The fraud data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System tells the same story from a different angle. Actual losses to digital payment fraud rose to N52.26 billion in 2024, a figure inflated significantly by a single N31.1 billion incident involving one institution but still representing a 196 per cent increase in fraud losses over five years, even as the number of individual cases declined.
The decline in case counts is not reassurance enough. It suggests that while fraudsters are making fewer attempts, they are making each one count considerably more.
By channel, e-commerce and internet banking remain the most exposed, followed by point-of-sale, mobile and web platforms.
The most common technique is social engineering, which requires no sophisticated technology at all. It requires only a convincing conversation and a customer who does not know what to guard against. Insider abuse, where bank staff are complicit in fraud, is identified by NIBSS as the single greatest structural threat to the sector.
That is a sobering finding, and one that no institution should read past quickly.
What this data collectively points to is a gap that the industry must confront honestly. Nigeria’s digital banking infrastructure has expanded at speed. The consumer protection architecture that should travel alongside it has not always kept pace.
Convenience and safety are not natural enemies, but they require deliberate and sustained design to coexist. Left to grow at different speeds, they create precisely the conditions that fraudsters, rogue actors and complacent institutions exploit.
The encouraging news is that the gap is closing. Nigeria exited the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list in 2025, a signal that the country’s financial system has materially strengthened its safeguards. The CBN’s 2024 rollout of risk-based cybersecurity frameworks for deposit money banks formalised the standard of care that institutions are required to demonstrate.
Regulatory enforcement actions in 2024, including reported industry penalties totalling over N15 billion, have underscored that consumer protection is a compliance obligation with real and immediate consequence. The industry is being held to a higher standard, and that is the right direction.
Within institutions themselves, the most effective safeguards are often the ones customers never see. The strongest security infrastructure operates silently in the background: monitoring account behaviour in real time, identifying anomalies before they become losses and intervening before a suspicious transaction completes rather than after.
This is not glamorous work, but it is the work that matters most. A customer who never has to report a fraud incident has been protected more effectively than one who was offered a sympathetic apology after the damage was done.
Union Bank’s experience illustrates what this balance looks like in practice.
According to the bank’s full-year 2025 customer experience data, its digital channels recorded strong customer satisfaction scores across all platforms: UnionMobile achieved a customer satisfaction score of 87 per cent and a net promoter score of 77, while the USSD channel (*826#) returned scores of 82 per cent and 70 respectively.
These are not numbers that emerge from convenience alone. They reflect what customers value above all else when they transact digitally: the confidence that the experience will be safe, seamless and complete.
That confidence is built through sustained investment in security infrastructure, proactive monitoring and an institutional culture that treats customer protection as a core value rather than a compliance line item.
It is a culture Union Bank articulates through its ICARE values, where the commitment to being customer and community-focused is not a policy position but a founding organisational principle, reinforced consistently from the moment any member of staff joins the bank.
In March, as institutions across Nigeria marked World Consumer Rights Day, Union Bank reaffirmed to its staff the responsibility that every individual within the organisation carries to uphold the rights and dignity of the customers it serves. It is the kind of internal commitment that rarely makes headlines, but that ultimately determines the quality of every customer interaction that does.
Trust is the only currency in banking that cannot be manufactured on demand. It is built over time, through consistent behaviour, through systems that protect customers before they know they need protecting, and through institutions willing to be accountable when they fall short. Nigeria’s digital banking revolution has done extraordinary things for financial access and economic participation. Its next chapter must be defined by what it does for financial safety. The two are not in competition. In the long run, they are, in every meaningful sense, the same thing.
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