Opinions
Three Major Shifts In The Presidential Campaign – Farooq A. Kperogi
In the last few days, three major things happened that are quietly changing the direction of the presidential race:
Three unanticipated, barely perceptible, but nonetheless significant and potentially seismic shifts are happening in the presidential race, which are confounding attempts to predict the outcome of the presidential election. The shifts are in the changing patterning of the fortunes and political coalitions of the presidential front-runners.
APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is suffering a deep, organic, almost irrecoverable depletion of his political goodwill in the Muslim North among everyday voters as a direct consequence of his failed, politically ill-advised attempts to recite the fatiha on three different occasions. The North’s Tinubu-supporting APC governors will have a hard time reversing this.
In the aftermath of Tinubu’s fatiha misadventures, videos of which have gone viral and have become grist for the mill of preachers, there is a growing consensus among ordinary voters in the region that Tinubu isn’t the Muslim he said he is, that he is either a munafiq or a Christian. In Islam, a munafiq (i.e., a religious hypocrite who pretends to be a Muslim) is worse than an unbeliever. Whether or not this conclusion is warranted or justified is beside the point. I am only stating the prevailing sentiment among everyday folks there.
I personally want a country where the doctrines people choose to subscribe to—or choose not to subscribe to—don’t determine their qualification for political office. There is absolutely no relationship between faith—or lack thereof—and competence. In fact, overly religious people, on average, tend to be dangerously inept phonies.
But it’s undeniable that religion is shaping up to have an outsized influence in mapping the contours of this presidential election. For instance, Tinubu’s erstwhile edge in the Muslim North was anchored on the notion that he was a Muslim who chose to “honor” his religion by damning consequences and choosing another Muslim to be his running mate. Voting for him was framed as a political “jihad” in sermons. No one preaches that in mosques these days, and people who did in the past are now objects of stone-cold derision.
The biggest beneficiary of the diminution of Tinubu’s religio-political capital in the Muslim North is PDP’s Atiku Abubakar about whom northern Muslim voters had been lukewarm at best. Atiku’s opposition to sharia in the early 2000s at a time it was both literally and politically suicidal to do so for a Northern Muslim had been held against him, particularly by the conservative clerical establishment.
He had also once repudiated the honorific West African Muslim title of “Alhaji” in a press statement and said he preferred to be addressed simply as “Vice President Atiku Abubakar.” That rankled many northern Muslims. Plus, his cosmopolitanism and associational politics had caused him to be labeled as “a southerner in northern skin,” to borrow the phrase of a Kaduna-based friend whose identity I’ve chosen to conceal.
In spite of the best efforts by APC’s northern governors, Atiku’s acceptance is on the upswing in the Muslim North in a dramatically incremental manner not because of anything he has done or said but because he is the only other option for voters in the region after Tinubu.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso may marginally win the plurality of votes in Kano, but there’s a sense everywhere else in the Muslim North that he is merely a petulant “spoiler” on whom people won’t “waste” their votes. Obi barely registers a presence in the minds of most Northern Muslim voters and is generally seen in an unflattering light.
Tinubu has detected the phenomenal transmutation of his political fortunes in the Muslim North not because Muhammadu Buhari and the Aso Rock cabal (who frankly now have zero political capital) are machinating against him but because of his fatiha debacles. In response, he has chosen to change tack and go full-on Yoruba nationalist.
In campaign stump speeches in Yoruba in the Southwest, Tinubu has been increasingly recoiling into his ethnic shell. For example, on Thursday in Osogbo, he said to a mammoth crowd: “Omo oko ni wa, a kii se omo ale [We are sons of our fathers; we are not bastards]. Awa la gbe won de be [We put them in power]. Awa l’a maa ro po won [We are the ones that will replace them].” That was clearly a dig at Buhari and his inner circle.
On Friday in Ekiti, he repeated the ethnic nationalist themes that have now become his customary style of campaigning when he speaks in Yoruba to a Yoruba audience. “This election is yours. It is the election you will use to liberate yourselves,” he said. “They want to turn us into servants. We are not servants.” That’s obviously not the language you would expect of the candidate of the ruling party.
The trope of slavery and servitude is an emotionally persuasive dog whistle in Yoruba nationalist politics. It evokes images and sensation of “Fulani domination” without mentioning it, and galvanizes a united ethnic front, particularly because Buhari and his cabal who are against him, and Atiku, his closest challenger, are Fulani people. In other words, Tinubu’s latest campaign style is straight out of “Yoruba Nation ” playbook.
A Yoruba friend who helped me translate Tinubu’s stump speeches said Tinubu “is actually preparing the West for a resistance.” And he may be successful because, at least on the surface, his grievance is valid. He and the Yoruba supported Buhari and his “Fulani” people to ascend to power on condition that their gesture would be reciprocated after eight years.
Now it’s payback time, and Buhari and his “Fulani” people are reneging on their pledge and want to hand over power to one of them from a different political party. You may question the merits of this argument, but it seems to be gaining traction in the Southwest even among people who previously despised Tinubu.
If what seems to be happening in the Southwest turns out to be true, this is bad news for Peter Obi who has anchored his entire presidential campaign on galvanizing Christian grievance over the faith’s exclusion at the top of APC and PDP’s presidential tickets. Ayo Adebanjo captured the Christian nationalist impulses in Obi’s popularity on Friday when he said, “If Obi loses, a Christian southerner may never be president again.”
Of course, that’s an inaccurate, off-the-wall claim, but it was strategically calculated to mobilize the Christian vote for Obi against Tinubu whom Adebanjo and his associates have a personal beef with. Nevertheless, Tinubu’s seeming rejection by Northern Muslim voters who now question his Muslim faith on account of his inability to recite the most recited chapter of the Muslim holy book is buying him sympathy from Yoruba people who didn’t care for his politics.
Increasingly, even Yoruba Christians are reassessing their rejection of Tinubu’s “Muslim-Muslim” ticket. It isn’t what they thought it was. This will potentially cut into the “Christian” vote that the Obi campaign had been banking on. But it was always a politically risky strategy to rely on the religious solidarity of Yoruba voters because ethnicity is historically a stronger force in Yorubaland than religion.
How these changing dynamics will impact the outcome of the election is still up in the air.
Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Mr. Mele Kyari has assured Nigerians that the Port Harcourt refinery will begin to deliver refined petroleum products in two weeks.
Addressing Journalists after meeting with the Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, APC, Anambra-South led Senate Ad-hoc Committee on Turnaround Maintenance of the country’s four refineries on Thursday, March 14, Kyari also disclosed that the Warri refinery is almost ready too. He added that the refinery in Kaduna would be completed and ready to go into production in December this year.
He said;
“The Completion mechanical means that you are done with your rehabilitation work, now you are to test if this completion is okay. As for Warri refinery, we have also completed the mechanical works on it and it is undergoing the regulatory compliance processes that we are doing with our regulator.
“This also will be completed and it will be ready. “Kaduna will be ready by December, We have not reached that stage (of Port Harcourt and Warri) with Kaduna.”
Kyari also said there are no challenges with the pipelines to deliver crude to the refineries as the existing lines are fully pressurised to deliver crude.
He said;
“All crude lines are active and have actually delivered over 450,000 barrels into Port Harcourt refinery. We are confident of the integrity of it. Yes, there may be security issues, but also the government is responding to the situation.”
I was at a colleague’s office in Finsbury’s Park, North London this week to train the staff on matters relating to anti money laundering’s ever evolving laws when the subject of Lagos and Nigeria came up.
I listened to every argument and happily enough, many of the contributors agreed that Lagos indeed is a city to watch and had nothing but praises for the masterminds of the current development of the modern city and with President Tinubu at the helms of affairs in Abuja, we can also expect some great transformation towards the country too.
Reno Omokri had these to say recently regarding the transformation of our country which has begun with Lagos about 25 years back: Isha Sessay is an American citizen who visits Nigeria often, and she praises our country to the high heavens because Nigeria’s healthcare saved her mother’s life. Time Out Magazine listed Lagos as better than Miami, Naples and Melbourne. (Some of) You have not been to these places, yet you are castigating Time Out as if you are better travelled than the 20,000 seasoned travellers they asked.
Are you aware that Lagos is now one of the world’s latest destinations for medical tourism? Please fact-check me. People from the United Kingdom and Europe, who have to contend with long waiting periods to see public healthcare professionals, are trooping to Lagos for inexpensive, IMMEDIATE treatment.
Let me add that our Stock Market is now the world’s most profitable bar none, and according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Nigeria is set to deliver a double-digit return on investment throughout 2024.
Governor Babajide Sanwoolu has just rolled out plans for an airline belonging to Lagos State to add to the incoming Lekki airport, the fourth mainland motorway, the rail systems covering not just the city but the whole state and beyond.
About 23 banks in the country are headquartered in Lagos and this tells you everything about those who watch over the city, those who labour day and night to make sure the city is free and secure to live and work. Those who selflessly plan for the progress of the city and her residents.
It is on this note I feel indignant listening to the provocative ranting of Senator Ali Ndume on the issue of moving some departments of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria to Lagos for easy administration.
How could Ndume come on national television to threaten fire and brimstone against the President so brazenly and with such impunity on a matter of mere administrative rather than political significance?
Who does he think he is to single out and address people from Lagos that work with the President in such a condescending manner? Look at the haughty manner in which he carried himself on national television insulting and attacking people he believes are less Nigerian than he and members of the self – conceited interest group he represents.
One of the first actions taken by OBJ after he assumed office in 1999 was to reverse the daft decision that moved the Hq of NPA from Marina to Abuja, which was taken by the Abacha administration. That was how SHIP HOUSE, Abuja was taken over by Ministry of Defence and the NPA Hq moved back to Lagos. Nigeria Railway Corporation also had its headquarters moved back to Railway Compound, Ebute Metta from Abuja by OBJ. When those decisions were taken the North cried foul but the world did not come to an end as OBJ stuck to his guns. I hope President Tinubu would stand his grounds on the decision that the Banking Supervision Department of the CBN and headquarters of FAAN be moved to Lagos. This is a test of wills and he must not back down.
We are copying the Presidential system of government from the US which literally allows the other components of the system to function along the central body or axis. In the US and the UK, strategic considerations determine where the headquarters of government agencies are located. When the need is compelling for some to be located outside the capital the headquarters is sited away from Washington or London. Abuja remains the capital but Lagos is strategically placed with all the amazing amenities being built by the government of the state to offer more opportunities to the nation.
Whichever way, Lagos continues to thrive and attract the best talents from all over the world and it will so greatly remain no matter the threat from her haters.
Unfortunately, no one can drag the lagoon or ocean from their God’s given abodes no matter how they try through their wicked devises and desires.
Lagos remains unshakable and will host many more departments thrown at it through the wisdom of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Dr George Ogunjimi, the Bamofin of Ojo kingdom, Lagos writes from Goffs Oak. Hertfordshire, UK.
– praises President Tinubu for achievements in 100 days
Members of the Lagos State House of Assembly have celebrated with the First Lady of the Federal Republic, Senator Oluremi Tinubu on her 63rd birthday.
The Speaker, Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, who directed the Clerk of the House to transmit a letter congratulating the First Lady on behalf of the Assembly, described Oluremi as a wonderful woman whose doors are always open to Nigerians in need.
“As a former First Lady of Lagos State, she continued and upgraded the Committee of Wives of Lagos State Officials, COWLSO, which is today appreciated far and wide.
“Her New Era Foundation lifted thousands of people, including widows, promoted and encouraged educational empowerment through the Spelling Bee competition that have produced many ‘One-Day Governors’ in the State.
“As Senator, she stood for Lagos in many capacities making the State proud of her.
“As the First Lady of Nigeria, she has continued with her strides for the well-being of others with unquantifiable compassion and zeal to help the less privileged, the challenged and those in need. She is doing this successfully through her Renewed Hope Initiative,” Dr. Obasa said adding that her philanthropic gestures have helped to build hope and motivated people.
He prayed for long life and health for the First Lady and her family.
Earlier, Hon. Omolara Olumegbon, who raised this on the floor of the House, appreciated Senator Oluremi for her achievements while she was First Lady of Lagos and in her capacity as the Grand Patron of the Committee of Wives of Lagos State Officials (COWLSO).
Hon. Olumegbon also recalled how the First Lady touched lives while she served as Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
She described the First Lady as a mother, philanthropist, politician and patriotic Nigerian.
While Hon. Joseph Kehinde extolled her as a woman who loves widows and children, Hon. Olotu Emmanuel commended her for always helping people.
Hon. Mosunmola Sangodara described Senator Oluremi Tinubu as a woman of strength who is also God-fearing.
According to her, the First Lady is “a humble person who respects people irrespective of their ages. She is a woman to emulate for the support she has always given President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”
Meanwhile, the House also commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his achievements in the last 100 days in office while urging for equitable distribution of palliatives in the form of social amenities across the country.
The lawmakers expressed satisfaction with the President’s effort to ensure the economy is stabilised despite the removal of subsidy.
“When people are appreciated, they tend to do more and in the case of Mr. President, there have been changes in all sectors of the country.
“The country is witnessing the achievements of President Tinubu. We also need to ensure that people who are in need of the palliative enjoy it the most in terms of more input in transportation, health, agriculture, and education,” Speaker Obasa said.
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