Politics

#US2024: 5 Takeaways From The Latest Flurry Of Harris-Trump Polls

Published

1 year ago

September 21, 2024

Editor

A plethora of polling has emerged in the past couple of days, giving fresh insights into the race for the White House.

More than 20 swing-state polls entirely conducted after the Sep. 10 debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump are now in the public domain.

Harris was widely perceived to have gotten the better of Trump in that encounter, though the question of how much her win has shifted the race is much cloudier.

Almost none of the latest polls were conducted recently enough to encompass reaction to the second apparent attempt on Trump’s life, which took place Sunday at his West Palm Beach, Fla., golf club.

Here are the main takeaways from the latest polls.

It’s better to be Harris than Trump — slightly

Overall, Team Harris is likely to be happier about the latest polls than Team Trump.

Nationally, Harris got some results that suggest she has slightly increased her lead over the former president. A Morning Consult poll put her up by 6 percentage points — her largest advantage to date in surveys from that organization — while surveys from ABC News/Ipsos and Yahoo News/YouGov put Harris ahead by 4 points and 5 points, respectively.

There were some eye-popping results for Harris in swing states too, though they were the exception rather than the rule.

The vice president’s campaign team will be happy about any reputable poll putting her up by 5 points in Pennsylvania, as a Quinnipiac University poll did; or by the same margin in Michigan, as a Marist College poll of likely voters did.

In the forecast maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris is now given a 55 percent chance of prevailing in November.

It’s important not to exaggerate the meaning of such a number, which points to an extremely tight race. But whatever momentum there is seems to be favoring Harris.

Trump has plenty of reasons for hope

Trump and his supporters need not be too disconsolate about the findings from the latest polls.

While overall there has been the appearance of a small trend toward Harris, it’s nowhere close to definitive. The debate, though it may have helped the vice president by 1 or 2 points, hasn’t come close to transforming the race.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday found the race to be tied nationwide among likely voters, with Trump up 1 point among all registered voters. A Fox News poll indicated Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead in both categories.

Team Trump can also take encouragement from several swing-state polls themselves, including a series from The Hill and Emerson College.

The Emerson polls have Trump up by 1 point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, suggesting the former president could again demolish chunks of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” The Emerson polls also have Trump up by 3 points in Georgia and by 1 point in Arizona, both states that President Biden carried in 2020.

Meanwhile, a Marist poll in Pennsylvania has the race there exactly tied — quite a contrast from surveys from Quinnipiac University and the New York Times/Siena College that have Harris up by 5 points and 4 points, respectively.

It’s tough to separate the signal from the noise

Pollsters and political scientists have a justifiable dislike of their surveys being cast as definitive down to the last decimal point.

Any survey on any subject has a margin of error and is susceptible to “noise” — numbers that shift because of the variables inherent in the polling process rather than because public opinion has actually changed.

The most recent spate of poll includes some eyebrow-raising results.

The New York Times/Siena College poll, for example, found Harris to be leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania while tied with Trump nationwide.

The finding sits incongruously with recent history.

Biden won the 2020 national popular vote by more than 4 points but prevailed by just a little more than 1 point in Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by roughly seven-tenths of a point while losing the national vote to Hillary Clinton by about 2 points.

There are other results that at least seem unusual.

The most recent polls from Quinnipiac, for instance, give Harris a much narrower lead in Wisconsin (1 point) than in Michigan (5 points) or Pennsylvania (5 points) — despite The Hill/DDHQ polling averages showing Harris with a larger lead in the Badger State.

Again, such outcomes do not undercut the reliability of any pollster. They simply underscore that it’s an inexact science.

When all is said and done, it’s still a coin flip

Every poll is going to be scrutinized closely with fewer than 50 days left in such a close and intense race.

But for all the reading of the polling tea leaves, the 2024 race is basically a coin flip.

The Hill/DDHQ polling averages in the key states tell the story. Harris leads by about a point in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, and by 2 points in Wisconsin. In the other three battlegrounds, the margins are fractions of a point.

There are numerous factors that could change that picture, including the millions of dollars each campaign is spending on TV advertising, Trump’s propensity to outperform his polls, or the capacity of a female Democratic nominee to benefit from a surge of support in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.

The polls keep telling us the best issues for either side

Some contours of this year’s race have remained fairly consistent — at least since Harris supplanted Biden as the Democratic nominee.

The abortion question is pretty clearly the strongest electoral card in the Democrats’ hands.

The New York Times/Siena College Poll, for example, showed Harris with a 13-point advantage among likely voters in terms of which candidate was trusted more on abortion.

Immigration is, electorally speaking, the mirror image of abortion — a big and emotive topic that plainly helps Republicans. Trump held a 12-point advantage on the topic in the Times poll.

Perhaps crucially, Trump was 13 points clear in the Times poll on the economy. That’s roughly in line with other surveys that give the former president the advantage on the topic that often ranks highest among voters’ concerns.

Politics

ADC’s Aisha Yesufu Issues Public Apology For Listing Yemi Adamolekun Without Consent

Published

3 days ago

January 30, 2026

Editor

Prominent activist and African Democratic Congress (ADC) member Aisha Yesufu has issued a public apology to governance advocate Yemi Adamolekun following a controversy over her inclusion in the party’s Wise Men and Women Policy and Manifesto Committee.

The issue emerged on Wednesday after Adamolekun, former executive director of Enough is Enough Nigeria, expressed surprise on social media at seeing her name listed among members of the ADC committee.

Tagging Yesufu and ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi, Adamolekun questioned the party’s process in a blunt post on X.

“ADC! ADC! ADC! How many times did I call you? This is not how to build credibility o! Please show me evidence of when I joined your party! Na wa….” she wrote.

Responding the same day, Abdullahi said the committee was designed to be expert-driven rather than strictly partisan.

“It is important to point out that not everyone on the ADC Policy and Manifesto Committee is a member of the ADC. Many are not even politicians,” he said.

He added, “This is because the ADC believes that the task of developing workable public policies for the benefit of all Nigerians should not be left to politicians alone.”

Abdullahi maintained that the party had followed due process.

He said the ADC had undergone a “vetting process” and “took all necessary measures to ensure that everyone recommended to serve on this important committee was duly notified and had given their consent.”

Despite the disagreement, he expressed hope that Adamolekun would still participate, citing her “vast experience – even though she is not a member of our party.”

However, reacting on Friday, Yesufu, a member of the party’s Revalidation, Mobilisation and Registration Committee, acknowledged the error and apologised publicly.

She wrote, “This is inexcusable, and on behalf of my party, accept my apologies for this mix-up. We do not take you and your need to have a better Nigeria for granted.”

Yesufu admitted the process was flawed.

“Like you rightly pointed out, you ought to have been informed and your consent gotten before your name is published.

“This is well noted, and going forward we will continue to ensure due diligence,” she said.

She added, “Thank you for calling our attention to this. We can only get better when we get such feedback and improve accordingly.

“The work to rebuilding Nigeria is enormous, and in our eagerness to start off, we must never forget due process and diligence.”

Yesufu also extended an apology to others affected by the publication.

“For anyone that was also not contacted and consent gotten before publication, kindly accept my apologies for the mix-up,” she said.

Politics

Atiku’s Son Gives Thumbs Up To Tinubu’s Economic Policies, Backs Another Term

Published

5 days ago

January 27, 2026

Editor

Abba Atiku Abubakar, son of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has attributed his support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid to what he described as the administration’s innovative and business-friendly economic policies.

He said President Tinubu’s economic initiatives are more favourable to businesses than those of previous administrations, adding that the reforms have reshaped his political alignment ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Abba made the remarks during a solidarity visit to the leadership of the City Boy Movement (CBM) in Abuja on Monday evening, where he led members of the Haske Atiku Organisation, now rebranded as the Haske Tinubu Organisation.

He recalled that he formally defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) on January 15, collecting his membership card at Gwadabwa Ward in Yola North Local Government Area of Adamawa State, where he publicly pledged support for Tinubu’s second-term ambition.

According to him, his decision to back the president was driven by admiration for the economic policies introduced since 2023, which he believes are positioning the country for stronger private-sector growth and investment.

According to him, “This administration has introduced policies that have every Nigerian in mind. If anyone says this government is not doing well, I will tell them they are lying,” he said. “I believe that if given another term, the government will do even more because it is focused.”

He explained that his long-standing experience in business has given him a clear perspective on economic governance in Nigeria.

“Since the return of democratic rule in 1999, I have been in business, and I am still in business today. The economic policies of Mr. President are favourable—not just to businesses, but to Nigerians in general, who are already benefiting from these reforms,” he stated.

He also explained that his decision to join the APC and align with the City Boy Movement was motivated by his passion for the Tinubu-led administration and his desire to serve.

“My joining the APC and the City Boy Movement is based on my belief in this administration. I also intend to use this platform to serve the people of Adamawa at the National Assembly level. Mr. President has made youth inclusion in politics a reality,” Abubakar added.

The Director General of the City Boy Movement, Mr. Oluwatosin Shoga reaffirmed President Tinubu’s commitment to youth participation in governance and leadership.

He noted that one of CBM’s core strategic mandates is to ensure that young Nigerians are deliberately positioned for leadership roles while encouraging greater youth involvement in the political process.

Abba’s delegation was received by the Director General of CBM, Mr. Shoga, and the National Coordinator, Mr. Favour Abayomi.

Politics

Oriyomi Hamzat Formally Joins 2027 Oyo Governorship Race Under Accord Party

Published

2 weeks ago

January 17, 2026

Editor

Popular Ibadan-based broadcaster and founder of Agidigbo 88.7 FM, Alhaji Oriyomi Hamzat has officially declared his intention to run for the 2027 Oyo State governorship under the Accord Party.

In a public declaration, Hamzat stated, “I am publicly declaring today that in 2027.

“I will not campaign for anyone or mobilise crowds for anyone.

“I will contest in the gubernatorial election under the Accord Party.”

The announcement signals Hamzat’s full commitment to his own political ambitions, stepping away from backing other candidates as he positions himself for the Oyo State governorship race.