Business
IMF Chief Economist: ‘Worst Is Yet To Come’ For Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook for the global economy next year based on the effects of the war in Ukraine, global inflation that requires interest rate hikes and a slowdown in China.
“In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated.
The IMF, which is the primary financial institution of the United Nations, now forecasts global growth will slow next year by 2.7% — down from 2.9% estimated back in July and down from the 3.2% growth projected this year.
Gourinchas said that there is about a 25% probability that global growth in 2023 could be at about 2% while there’s a 10%-15% chance that actually output growth could be even lower than 1%.
The shifting global economic landscape
“2% is a very low number,” Gourinchas told Yahoo Finance Live. “We only had that about five times since 1970. And every time we had this, if you look, it’s 1973 the oil price shock, 1981 and the Volcker disinflation, the 2008 financial crisis. They are all stuck in our collective memory as times of difficulties.”
The sun illuminates the spire on top of the Empire State Building as storm clouds pass through New York City on August 22, 2022, as seen from Hoboken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
More than a third of the global economy is expected to contract this year or next, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union, and China — will continue to stall.
The IMF expects growth in the U.S. to clock in at 1.6% this year — 0.7% lower than its July forecast — and growth of 1% in 2023.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to destabilize the global economy, the IMF noted, leading to a severe energy crisis in Europe that’s sharply increasing costs of living and hurting the economy.
The IMF warns that the risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy miscalibration has risen sharply and financial markets are showing signs of stress. The IMF believes that over-tightening risks pushing the global economy into an unnecessarily harsh recession.
At the same time, the IMF noted that it’s important for countries to raise rates and bring inflation under control since front-loading rate hikes and aggressive monetary tightening is critical to keep long-term inflation expectations in check. Overall, the IMF endorsed the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy.
“We are very comfortable with the monetary policy that is currently envisioned by the Federal Reserve and that is priced into markets,” Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s director of capital markets and monetary policy, told Yahoo Finance Live. “We think that this is what is needed in order to get inflation down. To get inflation down, you need to slow economic activity to some degree. Hopefully this will be a soft landing or even if it [were] to be a recession, it could be a shallow recession.”
Adrian added that “we could see a more severe recession.”
The IMF is forecasting global inflation to peak in late this year, but to remain elevated for longer than previously expected. The IMF sees inflation at 8.8% this year, then declining to 6.5% next year before decreasing to 4.1 percent by 2024.
“Inflation keeps going up still,” Gourinchas told Yahoo Finance Live. “I mean, we’re expecting that it’s going to peak soon and then start going down as a result in part of actions by central banks. But it’s proven both more persistent, more elevated, and also broader.”
The IMF also warned that risks to the stability of the global financial system have “materially worsened.” The international body said market liquidity has deteriorated across key asset classes and that there is a heightened risk of rapid, disorderly repricing which could interact with — and be amplified by — pre-existing vulnerabilities and poor market liquidity.
The IMF’s Global Bank Stress Test showed that a scenario with an abrupt and sharp tightening of financial conditions would send the global economy into recession in 2023 amid high inflation.
And while the Bank of England intervened in government bond market for the second time in 24 hours to shore up its bond markets in the wake of rising interest rates and potential changes in fiscal policy, Adrian said that the IMF believes the UK’s situation is special to the UK and doesn’t see the potential for contagion, nor does the international body see similar activity else where at the moment.
“While the rise in interest rates has moved some degree with other interest rates,” Adrian said, “interest rates tend to move together, we haven’t seen a spillover in terms of market dysfunction. Most of the tightening has been done within orderly market conditions. … Having said that, there is certainly a risk of disorderly tightening at some point.”
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed that sentiment at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, saying that the Fed has to “look for vulnerabilities as we’re increasing rates and [as] globally a lot of central banks are raising rates. There’s no evidence of disorderly market functioning at present.”
Business
Union Bank’s Union Cares Initiative Celebrates Academic Excellence at Pacelli School for the Visually Impaired Graduation
Union Bank of Nigeria proudly participated in the graduation ceremony of the Pacelli School for the Visually and Partially Sighted on 23 July 2025, honouring the resilience and academic achievements of visually impaired students.
The event, held on the school premises, highlighted the importance of inclusivity and determination in education.
As a 108-year-old institution committed to social responsibility, Union Bank’s involvement reflects its enduring support for Persons With Disabilities (PWD) and its dedication to fostering equitable access to education.
The Bank’s Chief Brand and Marketing Officer, Olufunmilola Aluko, expressed her admiration for the graduating students:
“Union Bank proudly stands as a champion of inclusiveness and equitable representation. Through our UnionCares corporate social responsibility initiative, we are committed to supporting vulnerable and underrepresented communities.
We celebrate the incredible achievements of these students and reaffirm our dedication to empowering them to reach their full potential.”
UnionCares is Union Bank’s CSR Arm focused on creating sustainable social impact in key areas, including:
• Support for Vulnerable Groups: Empowering persons with disabilities and other marginalised communities through inclusive initiatives.
• Education and Skill Development: Facilitating access to education and practical skills that promote self-reliance and opportunity.
• Community Well-Being: Enhancing the overall quality of life of communities through health, education, and social welfare projects.
Union Bank remains honoured to collaborate with institutions dedicated to uplifting less-recognised members of society. The Bank remains dedicated to championing initiatives that inspire positive change, and foster a more inclusive, enlightened community across Nigeria.
Kevin Ugwuoke, Executive Director and Chief Risk Officer of Fidelity Bank Plc, has formally assumed office as President of the Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI).
His leadership promises a reform-focused era anchored on policy advocacy, ethical standards, and digital innovation to deepen risk governance across sectors in the country.
Speaking during the presidential handover ceremony in Lagos over the weekend, Ugwuoke — who also doubles as acting President of the Federation of African Risk Management Associations (FARMA) — described his election as “a call to action.”
He pledged to reposition CRMI as a thought leader and institutional partner in shaping the future of risk management in Nigeria’s national development.
“Our mission is more than just certification; it’s about strengthening the culture of risk governance across sectors. We will collaborate with regulators, raise awareness, and provide practical tools to help organizations embed risk discipline at all levels.”
Ugwuoke outlined a five-pronged strategy to guide his administration: strengthening professional education and certification; deepening policy and regulatory engagement; accelerating digital transformation; integrating ESG and climate risk into corporate strategies; and mentoring the next generation of risk practitioners.
He explained that CRMI will align its initiatives with key policy institutions — including the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, the National Assembly, and sub-national governments — to help embed robust risk frameworks into economic development plans.
“We must integrate risk thinking into how we plan, govern, and invest. We will advocate for more inclusive regulations to empower small and medium enterprises, improve macroeconomic stability, and foster institutional resilience.”
Ugwuoke also announced plans to revise the Institute’s curriculum, introduce specialized certifications to reflect emerging risks, and implement a new National Risk Observatory to provide real-time risk data to both the public and private sectors.
“Digital innovation will be central to how CRMI operates going forward. We are automating our backend, delivering more virtual training, and employing technology to scale our impact across the country and beyond.”
In his remarks, the outgoing President of CRMI, Ezekiel Oseni, challenged the new leadership to consolidate on the achievements made under his tenure — from securing chartered status and strengthening partnerships to gaining greater international recognition — and take the Institute to the next level.
Also speaking on the occasion, Chukwuma Nweke, deputy managing director of United Bank for Africa (UBA), delivering a goodwill message on behalf of Group Managing Director, Oliver Alawuba, described Ugwuoke as a worthy successor. “As Professor Oseni hands over the baton to Kevin Ugwuoke — a well-respected leader in the risk management ecosystem — we are assured CRMI is poised for greater achievements under his watch.”
Nweke stressed that growing economic uncertainties — from inflation and exchange rate volatility to growing debt — underscore the need for a more strategic view of risk. “Risk must be recognized not as a compliance obligation or a cost center but as a key enabler of resiliency and growth. Institutions that embed risk into their strategies will absorb shocks more effectively, unlock value, and inspire investor confidence.”
As part of the day’s ceremonies, 11 distinguished practitioners were conferred with the Fellow of Chartered Risk Manager (FCRMI) award, while 21 new members were formally inducted as Chartered Risk Managers (CRM).
Furthermore, a new Governing Council was inaugurated to oversee the affairs of the Institute for the 2025–2027 term, marking a decisive step forward in institutional renewal and policy direction.
L-R: Registrar/Chief Executive, Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI), Victor Olannye; Divisional Head, Risk Management Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Grace Abioye; Immediate Past President, CRMI, Ezekiel Oseni; President, CRMI and Executive Director/Chief Risk Officer, Fidelity Bank Plc, Kevin Ugwuoke; Director, Enterprise Risk Management, Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Amal Haruna; and Rep. Keynote speaker, Deputy Group Management Director, United Bank of Africa (UBA), Chukwuma Nweke; at the CRMI Conferment Handover/Sent-Forth ceremony, held in Lagos recently.
One of Africa’s leading financial institutions, Zenith Bank has reaffirmed its dedication to employee welfare by announcing the promotion of over 4,000 staff members and implementing salary increases ranging from 20% to 30% across various employee grades.
This bold initiative, under the leadership of Managing Director/CEO Dame Adaora Umeoji, its aimed at boosting staff morale and productivity.
With over 8,000 employees, this significant investment in human capital reflects Zenith Bank’s belief that its workforce is its most valuable asset. The salary adjustments, effective January 1, 2025, aim to reward performance, alleviate financial pressures, and ensure enhanced customer service delivery. Promotions for top management are also expected as part of the bank’s ongoing commitment to excellence and growth.
Dr. Umeoji emphasized the importance of maintaining a motivated workforce, stating that the bank’s dedication to its employees will translate into superior service experiences for customers. She highlighted the organization’s commitment to setting industry benchmarks through innovative solutions and exceptional service delivery.
Zenith Bank’s continued leadership in the Nigerian financial sector is underscored by numerous awards, including Best Bank in Nigeria 2024 by Global Finance and recognition as the Biggest Bank in Nigeria by Tier-1 Capital in 2024 by The Banker. These accolades complement its reputation for innovation, sustainability, and corporate governance.
By prioritizing employee welfare during challenging times, Zenith Bank not only strengthens its internal operations but also sets a standard for other financial institutions in the region, reinforcing its position as a leader in Africa’s banking landscape.
As a major player in Nigeria’s financial landscape, under its managing director/chief executive officer, Adaora Umeoji, the bank has embraced a holistic approach to growth that integrates environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles with its core business objectives.
At the heart of Zenith Bank’s strategy is a focus on buoying economic inclusion, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and driving technological innovation to enhance customer experiences. The bank’s proactive investments in renewable energy, sports, digital transformation and impactful community initiatives exemplify its dedication to creating long-term value for its stakeholders while addressing global sustainability challenges.
Zenith Bank’s continued success is driven by a combination of strong financial performance and an unwavering commitment to its stakeholders.
Zenith Bank’s growth trajectory is underpinned by a robust expansion strategy. With operations in several countries, including the UK, UAE, China, and most recently, France, the bank continues to expand its geographical footprint.
As usual, the bank’s efforts in 2024 did not unnoticed as the lender clinched several local and international awards in recognition of its outstanding performance.
In 2024, the bank won the Best Bank in Nigeria at the annual Global Finance award in Washington, DC, NY.
The bank also emerged the Biggest Bank in Nigeria by Tier-1 Capital, 2024 by The Banker; Best Commercial Bank, Nigeria 2024 – World Finance; Best Corporate Governance, Nigeria 2024 – World Finance; Most Sustainable Bank, Nigeria 2024 – International Banker; Bank of the Year, 2024 – Business Day; Retail Bank of the Year, 2024 – Business Day; Bank of the Year 2024- The Banker.
It also clinched the Most Responsible Organization in Africa 2024 – SERAS; Best in Gender Equality & Women Empowerment 2024 – SERAS and Best in Transparency & Reporting 2024 – SERAS
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