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What Osinbajo Said About Naira Devaluation, What It Could Mean For The Future

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Nigeria is on auto-replay. Events of the past find a clever way of repeating themselves. Very few things that happen in this African giant are new.

Conversations around the naira and dollar are definitely not new, and we are back at a familiar junction: let’s call it the naira devaluation avenue.

On Monday, at the midterm review of President Muhammadu Buhari’s second tenure in office, the conversation about naira devaluation found a good place to grab centre stage.

For about 45 minutes, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo explained how the country’s Economic Sustainability Plan helped Nigeria get out of recession.

At the end of his presentation, Osinbajo told a hall full of ministers, captains of industries, diplomats, and civil servants, how he expects the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the naira to reflect the state of the market.

The professor of law did not mince words when he said the CBN’s demand-management strategy needs a rethink.

“As for the exchange rate, I think we need to move our rates to [be] as reflective of the market as possible. This, in my own respective view, is the only way to improve supply,” Osinbajo said.

“We can’t get new dollars into the system, where the exchange rate is artificially low. And everyone knows by how much our reserves can grow. I’m convinced that the demand management strategy currently being adopted by the CBN needs a rethink, and that is just my view.”

The boldest part of Osinbajo’s call for devaluation was that he did it right before his principal, President Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari is known to be against the devaluation of the naira, even when market forces clearly necessitate the shift.

WHAT HAPPENED WHEN OSINBAJO CALLED FOR DEVALUATION IN 2016

When Buhari and Osinbajo took office in 2015, one of the first demands of the investing community was for the government to devalue the naira and maintain a single exchange rate system. President Buhari strongly opposed this position. He famously said he will not kill the naira.

Osinbajo stood with Buhari. He told diplomats that Nigeria will not be devaluing the naira, suggesting that devaluation was not the solution to the currency crisis.

“I don’t agree on devaluation and it is not that I am doctrinaire about it. In the first place, it is not a solution — we are not exporting significantly. And the way things are, devaluation will not help the local economy,” he told ambassadors from Italy and Canada, who visited him in October 2015.

Some months down the line, the vice-president who chairs major economic committees in the Buhari government, called for a “substantial revaluation for the foreign exchange policy”.

“There has been a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings. The executive is not responsible for monetary policy but we have made the point clearly that demand management will not take us out of the woods,” he said in May 2016.

Just as Osinbajo said in 2016, he has said again in 2021 that the CBN’s “demand management” strategy needs to be reevaluated.

A month after Osinbajo’s call in 2016, the CBN removed its peg on the naira from 197 per dollar. The local currency went as high as 283 per dollar in a matter of hours.

Osinbajo said this would help boost dollar supply and encourage capital inflows. He was right. Nigeria recorded a 138.7 percent increase in inflows. But the story did not end there.

WHAT 2016 TEACHES US ABOUT 2021

If we follow the 2016 script to the letter, then the authorities would walk back on this call for devaluation starting from today. We would find many reasons why devaluation is bad for the economy. But the devaluation will eventually happen.

Look at it like this; we are back at that time in 2015 when the official rate of the dollar was N197, and the parallel market rate was N260. There was more than a 20 percent gap between the parallel market and the official side. Today we have 411 vs 570, which is also more than a 20 percent gap.

If the CBN goes with Osinbajo’s suggestion to “move our rates”, what immediately happens is that we see a devaluation at the official market, which may drive up prices of goods and services in the short term.

If the CBN employs some of the lessons from the past, it can strengthen the naira at the parallel market. The naira will dramatically recover from N570 per dollar to anywhere between 450 and 500.

There would be a unification of rates at a new midpoint. But the big question is: what happens next?

After the 2016 devaluation and some sort of unification, the parallel market began to shift again. The CBN adjusted for unification. By 2017, the parallel market had taken the naira to 520 per dollar. CBN had to devalue again to 360 to firm up rates.

The naira recovered from 520 to 360 at the parallel market. But this was not sustainable due to the nature of the Nigerian economy.

Since 2017, we have moved from a unified 360 to 570 as of Monday. If we devalue again, the naira will firm up for a bit, and if we don’t do something different with the economy, we would be back again at devaluation avenue in a few years. That is how the Nigerian auto-replay works.

 

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I Delivered $15m Agency Cash To Ex-NIMASA DG Akpobolokemi, EFCC Witness Tells Court

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A prosecution witness, Captain Ezekiel Bala-Agaba, testified in a Lagos Federal High Court on Thursday, that he personally delivered $15 million in cash to former NIMASA DG, Patrick Akpobolokemi.

The witness, Bala-Agaba, a former Executive Director of Maritime Safety, Shipping Development and Marine Operations at NIMASA, made the disclosure while testifying before Justice Ayokunle Faji of the Federal High Court in Lagos.

Captain Agaba, who appeared as the 15th prosecution witness, told the court that funds meant for pipeline surveillance were withdrawn from NIMASA’s accounts, converted into dollars, and handed over to Dr Akpobolokemi.

According to him, the money was taken to a Bureau de Change, which converted it into $15 million before the cash was delivered to the NIMASA office on Burma Road, Apapa, Lagos.

He said he subsequently took the money to the office of the then Director-General.

“The money was sent to a Bureau de Change, which later brought the dollar equivalent to our office at Burma Road, Apapa, Lagos. I asked my Personal Assistant, Ekene Nwakuche, to carry the bag and follow me to the Director-General’s office,” he told the court.

The witness explained that he collected the bag from his aide before entering the office.

“When we got to the door of the Director-General’s office, I collected the bag from him and asked him to wait outside. I then personally delivered the sum of $15 million to the Director-General.”

The witness was initially a defendant in the case but later opted to testify for the prosecution.

While being led in evidence by prosecuting counsel, Suleiman Suleiman, he explained the chain of command within NIMASA and how financial approvals were processed in the agency.

According to him, the Director-General is the overall head of the agency and issues instructions to directors, who then implement policies in line with the NIMASA Act.

He told the court that he chaired the agency’s Intelligence Committee, which was responsible for certain security-related operations.

“As chairman of the committee, I oversaw its activities and reported directly to the Director-General, Dr. Patrick Akpobolokemi,” he said.

During the proceedings, the witness was also shown a document containing a letter from Access Bank to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) detailing transactions in NIMASA’s accounts between 2013 and 2015.

When asked how much money he took to the former Director-General, Agaba replied: “$15 million.”

After listening to the testimony, Justice Faji adjourned the matter until April 22 and 23 for cross-examination of the witness.

The EFCC had in December 2015 arraigned Dr. Akpobolokemi and seven others before the court on a 30-count charge bordering on conspiracy, fraudulent conversion of funds and money laundering.

Those charged alongside the former NIMASA boss include, Warredi Enisuoh, Governor Juan, Ugo Frederick, Timi Alari, as well as Alkenzo Limited and Penniel Engineering Services Limited.

They pleaded not guilty to the offences.

The anti-graft agency alleged that the defendants conspired to divert funds running into over N1.15 billion under the guise of providing security intelligence in Nigeria’s maritime domain.

According to the EFCC, the NIMASA Intelligence Committee allegedly received N1,153,000,000 between December 2013 and July 2015.

Investigations further revealed that several companies contracted to execute the intelligence operations were either unregistered or lacked the capacity to perform the services, while some were allegedly linked to the defendants.

The prosecution also alleged that the defendants nominated or owned many of the companies used to execute the contracts.

One of the charges stated that the defendants conspired to commit offences punishable under the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act, 2012.

 

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CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing New Banking Services

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a directive to all financial institutions to immediately restrict certain banking services for large-ticket borrowers with non-performing loans (NPLs).

This move is aimed at strengthening credit discipline and protecting the stability of the Nigerian financial system following a rise in the industry’s NPL ratio to approximately 7%, exceeding the regulatory 5% threshold.

This order is specifically targeted at large-ticket obligors.

The CBN issued the directive in a circular to banks on Monday.

The latest instruction comes almost a week after the CBN asked financial institutions to stress test.

It is uncertain if the two directives are connected or what may have triggered the loan-related instruction, but the apex bank said it furthers its mandate to protect Nigeria’s financial system.

“In furtherance of its mandate to promote a sound financial system, protect depositors, and enhance prudential compliance within the banking sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) hereby directs all banks to restrict non-performing large ticket obligors, whose activities pose systemic risk to the financial system, from accessing specified banking services,” the circular reads in part.

“Any large-ticket obligor with a non-performing facility recorded in the CRMS and/or any licensed private credit bureau shall not be granted additional credit facilities. For the purpose of this restriction, credit facilities include loans and other forms of direct credit.

“In addition, such obligors shall not be granted banking facilities or contingent liabilities such as bankers’ confirmations, letters of credit, performance bonds, or advance payment guarantees.”

 

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Makinde Only In PDP Because He’s Not Seeking Re-election – Otitoju

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Babajide Kolade-Otitoju, the Director of News at TVC News, recently stated that Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde would likely have defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) if he was still serving his first term.

Otitoju stated this on Friday on TVC’s ‘Breakfast Show’.

He described the National Convention of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Ibadan last November as a mere waste of time.

“People must show good judgment at a critical phase. What was the point of having that convention? Two courts told you not to go ahead but you went ahead.

“I may not be a fan of former Senate President Bukola Saraki but if he says something that makes sense, I will be the first to admit it. He made sense when he said let’s go for caretaker. What’s the point of not listening to him?

“Later you will be shouting that the ruling party is behind your crisis, meanwhile you are the architect of your own misfortunes. You created this problem.

“If Makinde were in his first term, he would have fled like the dancing governor because his second term would have been in danger,” Otitoju said.

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