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What Osinbajo Said About Naira Devaluation, What It Could Mean For The Future

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Nigeria is on auto-replay. Events of the past find a clever way of repeating themselves. Very few things that happen in this African giant are new.

Conversations around the naira and dollar are definitely not new, and we are back at a familiar junction: let’s call it the naira devaluation avenue.

On Monday, at the midterm review of President Muhammadu Buhari’s second tenure in office, the conversation about naira devaluation found a good place to grab centre stage.

For about 45 minutes, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo explained how the country’s Economic Sustainability Plan helped Nigeria get out of recession.

At the end of his presentation, Osinbajo told a hall full of ministers, captains of industries, diplomats, and civil servants, how he expects the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the naira to reflect the state of the market.

The professor of law did not mince words when he said the CBN’s demand-management strategy needs a rethink.

“As for the exchange rate, I think we need to move our rates to [be] as reflective of the market as possible. This, in my own respective view, is the only way to improve supply,” Osinbajo said.

“We can’t get new dollars into the system, where the exchange rate is artificially low. And everyone knows by how much our reserves can grow. I’m convinced that the demand management strategy currently being adopted by the CBN needs a rethink, and that is just my view.”

The boldest part of Osinbajo’s call for devaluation was that he did it right before his principal, President Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari is known to be against the devaluation of the naira, even when market forces clearly necessitate the shift.

WHAT HAPPENED WHEN OSINBAJO CALLED FOR DEVALUATION IN 2016

When Buhari and Osinbajo took office in 2015, one of the first demands of the investing community was for the government to devalue the naira and maintain a single exchange rate system. President Buhari strongly opposed this position. He famously said he will not kill the naira.

Osinbajo stood with Buhari. He told diplomats that Nigeria will not be devaluing the naira, suggesting that devaluation was not the solution to the currency crisis.

“I don’t agree on devaluation and it is not that I am doctrinaire about it. In the first place, it is not a solution — we are not exporting significantly. And the way things are, devaluation will not help the local economy,” he told ambassadors from Italy and Canada, who visited him in October 2015.

Some months down the line, the vice-president who chairs major economic committees in the Buhari government, called for a “substantial revaluation for the foreign exchange policy”.

“There has been a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings. The executive is not responsible for monetary policy but we have made the point clearly that demand management will not take us out of the woods,” he said in May 2016.

Just as Osinbajo said in 2016, he has said again in 2021 that the CBN’s “demand management” strategy needs to be reevaluated.

A month after Osinbajo’s call in 2016, the CBN removed its peg on the naira from 197 per dollar. The local currency went as high as 283 per dollar in a matter of hours.

Osinbajo said this would help boost dollar supply and encourage capital inflows. He was right. Nigeria recorded a 138.7 percent increase in inflows. But the story did not end there.

WHAT 2016 TEACHES US ABOUT 2021

If we follow the 2016 script to the letter, then the authorities would walk back on this call for devaluation starting from today. We would find many reasons why devaluation is bad for the economy. But the devaluation will eventually happen.

Look at it like this; we are back at that time in 2015 when the official rate of the dollar was N197, and the parallel market rate was N260. There was more than a 20 percent gap between the parallel market and the official side. Today we have 411 vs 570, which is also more than a 20 percent gap.

If the CBN goes with Osinbajo’s suggestion to “move our rates”, what immediately happens is that we see a devaluation at the official market, which may drive up prices of goods and services in the short term.

If the CBN employs some of the lessons from the past, it can strengthen the naira at the parallel market. The naira will dramatically recover from N570 per dollar to anywhere between 450 and 500.

There would be a unification of rates at a new midpoint. But the big question is: what happens next?

After the 2016 devaluation and some sort of unification, the parallel market began to shift again. The CBN adjusted for unification. By 2017, the parallel market had taken the naira to 520 per dollar. CBN had to devalue again to 360 to firm up rates.

The naira recovered from 520 to 360 at the parallel market. But this was not sustainable due to the nature of the Nigerian economy.

Since 2017, we have moved from a unified 360 to 570 as of Monday. If we devalue again, the naira will firm up for a bit, and if we don’t do something different with the economy, we would be back again at devaluation avenue in a few years. That is how the Nigerian auto-replay works.

 

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Couple Kidnapped, One Shot In Ondo Estate Attack

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Gunmen suspected to be kidnappers have abducted a couple from their residence in the Iluabo area of Akure North Local Government, Ondo State.

During the attack, which occurred in the early hours of Saturday, February 21, 2026, the assailants shot one person before seizing the victims.

The gunmen had stormed Olaribigba Estate in the community when they whisked Mr Jamiu Olawale and his wife into the bush.

Following the development, which has created tension in the agrarian community, residents protested and barricaded the road leading to the community over the incessant kidnappings and insecurity in the community.

According to sources, the couple had arrived at their residence in an ash-coloured Toyota Camry when they were attacked by the gunmen, who lay in ambush for them.

During the incident, a neighbour of the abducted couple, Patrick Ilumaro, who was seated in front of his residence, was shot by the gunmen while fleeing from the community.

A neighbour of the victims revealed that Ilumaro was swiftly rushed to an undisclosed medical facility where he is currently receiving medical treatment.

While confirming the incident, the Ondo State Police Command disclosed that tactical teams as well as conventional operatives have been deployed to the community.

In a statement issued by the Police Public Relations Officer, Abayomi Jimoh, the operatives are already combing the axis in an effort to rescue the victims and apprehend the perpetrators.

“Concerted efforts are ongoing to ensure the safe return of the abducted persons and bring those responsible to justice.

“Members of the public are urged to remain calm and go about their lawful activities. Meanwhile, the Command urges them to provide credible and actionable information that may assist in the investigation to the nearest police station.”

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Brake Failure Leaves One Dead, Four Rescued At Abule-Egba

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One person died and four others were rescued following a road accident at Ekoro Junction, Abule-Egba, on Friday evening, according to a statement from the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority.

The Director, Public Affairs and Enlightenment Department of LASTMA, Adebayo Taofiq, made this known in a statement issued on the agency’s X handle on Saturday.

According to the agency, the crash occurred at about 7:30 p.m. when an empty MACK tanker suffered a sudden brake failure, lost control and rammed into a Toyota Corolla before crashing into a roadside shop.

LASTMA said the tanker, with registration number EKY 900 XY, collided with a Toyota Corolla marked AAA 823 AY.

The impact caused extensive structural damage to the shop and triggered panic among traders and pedestrians in the area.

“The magnitude of the collision led to the immediate confirmation of one fatality at the scene, while four other trapped persons were extricated from the wreckage through coordinated emergency rescue efforts,” the agency stated.

The authority said it immediately activated its Rescue and Recovery Protocol, deploying specialised operatives to manage the situation.

“Personnel implemented strategic traffic diversion, vehicular evacuation procedures and crowd management in synergy with other emergency responders to forestall secondary incidents and guarantee unobstructed access for rescue operations,” LASTMA added.

It stated that emergency teams carried out rescue operations and provided medical attention to the injured victims.

According to the agency, a heavy-duty tow truck was later deployed to evacuate the damaged tanker and clear debris from the road to restore normal traffic flow.

The agency disclosed that the tanker driver fled the scene shortly after the crash and security operatives have since launched efforts to apprehend the driver and initiate legal proceedings.

“Security personnel from the Nigeria Police Force, Ekoro Division, responded expeditiously, maintaining public order, securing the accident perimeter and assisting in investigative processes aimed at establishing the precise sequence of events that culminated in the mechanical failure and subsequent collision.

“The incident precipitated considerable traffic congestion extending across adjoining routes toward Abule-Egba, necessitating robust traffic management interventions by LASTMA officials who remained on ground directing vehicular movement and implementing diversion strategies to alleviate the backlog,” it said.

According to the agency, its General Manager, Olalekan Bakare-Oki, expressed condolences to the family of the deceased and urged transport operators, particularly drivers of articulated vehicles, to prioritise routine vehicle maintenance.

“Preventable mechanical deficiencies remain a significant contributory factor in severe road traffic crashes,” Bakare-Oki said.

He also advised motorists to exercise vigilance, obey traffic regulations and maintain responsible driving practices, especially within densely populated commercial corridors.

Bakare-Oki assured the public that security agencies would conduct a thorough investigation to determine the immediate and remote causes of the incident and ensure that anyone found culpable would be prosecuted in accordance with extant laws.

The agency said other emergency responders at the scene included the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency, the Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service, the Lagos State Ambulance Service, the State Environmental Health Monitoring Unit and officers of the Nigeria Police Force, collaborated to coordinate rescue, medical response and environmental safety measures.

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Court Sets Feb 25 For El-Rufai’s Arraignment In DSS Cybercrime Case

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The Department of State Services (DSS) will arraign former Governnor of Kaduna state, Nasir El-Rufai, on February 25 over alleged cybercrime and breach of national security.

Justice Joyce Abdulmalik of the Federal High Court has fixed the date for the arraignment of the former Governor on a three-count criminal charge filed by the Department of State Services (DSS) after the Chief Judge, Justice John Tsoho assigned the case to her.

NAN earlier reported that the DSS, on Monday, filed a three-count criminal charge against El-Rufai following his alleged involvement in wiretapping the telephone lines of the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.

The charge, instituted by the Nigerian secret police, is marked FHC/ABJ/CR/99/2026.

The service accused El-Rufai of breaching the Cybercrimes Prohibition Act (2024) and the Nigerian Communications Act (2003.)

In court, El-Rufai was alleged to have, on Feb. 13, while appearing as a guest on Arise TV station’s Prime Time Programme in Abuja, admitted during the interview that he and his cohorts unlawfully intercepted the phone communications of the NSA, Mr Ribadu.

The offence is said to be contrary to and punishable under Section 12(1) of the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Amendment Act, 2024.

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