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Tinubu: I Predicted This Would Happen To Him- Farooq Kperogi
By Farooq A. Kperogi, Ph.D.
Twitter: @farooqkperogi
The political coalition between Muhammadu Buhari’s CPC and Bola Tinubu’s ACN has all but collapsed. There was nothing even remotely surprising about it. In previous columns, media interviews, and social media updates, I predicted that this would happen.
For example, in my June 23, 2018 column titled “Buhari’sJune 12 Pandering and Naivety of Yoruba Elite,” I wrote:
“Buhari may well get a second term with the help of votes from the Southwest. But one thing is as certain as tomorrow’s date: he will spectacularly fall out with the Yoruba elite whose support he’s bending over backwards to court now. He’d no longer have a need for them after 2019 and might even remember that they betrayed him in 2011.
“These same people would then turn against not just Buhari but the entire North. If we’re alive till then, we’d remind them that they are complicit in their own fate. An Italian proverb says, “When a man deceives me once, it is his fault; when twice, it is mine.”
In a January 26, 2019 column titled “Bola Tinubu’s Costly 2023 Political Gamble,” I wrote the following, among other things that have come to pass:
“Tinubu is going into another alliance with Buhari in hopes that Buhari and his supporters will reward him with a presidential ticket in 2023. That’s a costly miscalculation for a whole host of reasons.
“I am familiar enough with members of Buhari’s inner circle to know that they deeply despise Tinubu. They snigger at his presidential ambition and are amused by his expectation that they would support him. Tinubu himself knows this. That’s why I am shocked that he appears irresistibly and dangerously drawn to people who will throw him like he is hot after the February election. Maybe he is gripped by the sort of deathly attraction that causes a moth to embrace a flame.
“During a TV appearance on Television Continental on February 20, 2018, Tinubu’s wife, Remi, said Tinubu was “trashed” by Buhari’s northern political machine after the 2015 election.
People who “trashed” you after an electoral triumph to which you’re central will certainly go the whole hog and incinerate or bury you in the aftermath of another victory that will ensure that they will no longer need you.
“Apart from the certain betrayal that will surely come from the Buhari camp in the event that Tinubu helps them to win or rig the 2019 election, a Tinubu presidential candidacy will be beset by a lot of problems.
Given the heightened sensitivity of religion in Nigeria now, which is made even more so by Buhari’s unexampled, in-your-face bigotry, Tinubu would be required to have a northern Christian as a running mate to earn the support of the south and the Christian north. That would, however, automatically alienate Buhari’s northern Muslim supporters. So his ambition is dead before it’s even born.
“Most importantly, though, as Tinubu himself knows only too well, a vote for APC in the coming presidential election won’t be a vote for Buhari; it would be a vote for an evil, greedy, corrupt, provincial, and reactionary cabal and their minions who are currently perpetrating a stratospheric theft of the nation’s resources in ways that would make an angel of Abacha. President Buhari is an insentient human vegetable who is barely aware of his own existence.”
In a September 21, 2019 column, titled “Why Bola Tinubu Can Never Be Nigeria’s President,” I pointed out that “Before the 2019 election, a friend of mine who is close to Abba Kyari confided in me that after the election they would ‘deal with Tinubu and his people.’ He bragged that by the time they are done with him and his underlings, he would be so damaged that he won’t even be an option for the 2023 presidency. It’s already starting.”
In a December 22, 2019 social media status update titled “Tinubu’s Dangerous Dance with the Cabal,” I wrote:
“The cabal is toying with Bola Tinubu like a yo-yo—and he is naively, if gingerly, playing along— in readiness for his eventual political incineration by or before 2023. And the cabal is being ruthlessly Machiavellian about it.
“Tinubu has been given a fake promissory note that he’ll be APC’s presidential torchbearer in 2023. On the strength of this worthless promissory note, they’ve sought his permission to destroy some of his most trusted foot soldiers.
“With his consent, they’ve consigned Yemi Osinbajo to symbolic Aso Rock prison. Tinubu endorsed Tunde Fowler’s replacement at the FIRS and is in on his impending trial for corruption. He also stamped his imprimatur to Muiz Banire’s unceremonious ouster from AMCON. He’s giddily approving everything the cabal tells him it wants to do to his “constituents” and foot soldiers.
“He has now fallen out of favor with almost all Southwest governors except his dutiful stooge in Lagos and his nephew in Osun. Of course, he is a bête noire to Afenifere. At this rate, Tinubu would divorce his wife and disown his children if the cabal tells him to do so—just because he’s told that he’d be president.
“This is a strategic, Machiavellian demobilization of his base, but one in which he is a willing participant, using the illusory promise of APC presidential nomination. When he is eventually denied the APC presidential slot, he would have no one of political consequence in his natal region to fall back to for counterattack other than his battering rams in the Lagos media.
“Before his eventual political annihilation, he would be thoroughly unpopular in the Southwest. His fate would elicit no mass sympathy from the region when the cabal finally bares its fangs publicly and devours him.”
And in a December 8, 2019 interview with The Interviewmagazine’s Azubuike Ishiekwene, I said the following in response to the question, “If you were to make a prediction about the political landscape in 2020, what would it be?”
“I have no—nor do I believe anyone has—oracular powers, but I think 2020 would witness the incipience of the alignment of political forces preparatory to the 2023 election.
“The Buhari/Tinubu alliance would crack more noticeably. The people who prop Buhari in power don’t want Tinubu—or anyone outside their primordial constituency—to succeed them. That’s my prediction.”
What hasn’t started to happen yet is the fight I predicted between paid Buhari & Tinubu loyalists on social media. In an October 5, 2018 social media post titled “Contest of Idiocy Between Buharists and Tinubuists,” I said, among other things:
“It’s no surprise that Buharists and Tinubuists are in a coalition of buffoonery to reelect a lifeless Buhari in 2019. When pigheaded Buhari fanaticism collides with sheepish Tinubu loyalty, it sparks the sort of combustible admixture of idiocy we’re seeing today, which disposes otherwise normal people to lend unthinking support to transparently incompetent people for political office. Thankfully, the rank of the Tinubuists is dwindling dramatically.
“Buharists and Tinubuists certainly share the same slavish, uncritical, freakish mentality, but wait to see what will happen in 2023 (if Buhari wins a second term) when Buhari disappoints Tinubu by not “handing over” power to him–as he expects Buhari would. You’d be entertained by the fight that would break out between the two idiotic camps that are friends today. Save this somewhere.”
So Tinubu had lots of warning that the fate that has befallen him now was a foregone conclusion. He ignored it and chose instead to legitimize the worst civilian regime in Nigeria’s history. He deserves his fate.
Well, the next predictable phase in the unfolding drama is for Tinubu to turn the Lagos news media against the Buhari regime— and for his mindless loyalists to clash with Buharists in a contest of idiocy. That would be an entertaining spectacle to watch.
News
Ignore Fake February 2 Sit-at-Home Order, IPOB Lawyer Tells South-East Residents
A human rights lawyer and lead counsel for the Indigenous People of Biafra, Sir Ifeanyi Ejiofor, has urged South-East residents to completely ignore what he described as a “fraudulent” sit-at-home order allegedly scheduled for Monday, February 2, 2026, by a faction of the group.
Recall that the pro-Biafran group, through its spokesman Emma Powerful, had directed a sit-at-home on February 2 across the region in solidarity with traders at the Onitsha Main Market.
Powerful said the total shutdown in Biafraland is a direct, peaceful, and unified response to the actions of Anambra State Governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, who ordered the closure of the Onitsha Main Market for one week.
But in a counter statement released on Saturday, Ejiofor said the source behind the directive, operating under the guise of “Emma Powerful,” has been compromised and is acting against the collective interest of Ndi-Igbo.
He insisted that IPOB has formally and decisively distanced itself from the false sit-at-home order and directed Ndi-Igbo to go about their lawful activities without fear.
The statement read in part: “Once again, the well-worn theatre of misinformation has opened its curtains, this time with a particularly lazy script and an insultingly predictable cast.
“Late yesterday, a report was widely circulated alleging that a total lockdown of Ala-Igbo had been ordered under the guise of a sit-at-home directive purportedly issued by ‘Emma Powerful,’ slated for Monday, February 2, 2026.
“Let it be stated clearly, unequivocally, and without ambiguity: this directive is fake, a phantom, a calculated falsehood.
“Upon careful inquiry and diligent verification, especially considering the delicate and hard-won calm presently returning to our homeland, it became glaringly obvious that the so-called ‘Emma Powerful’ platform has been fatally compromised.
“It has been hijacked by vested interests whose business model thrives on fear, disruption, extortion, and the cynical exploitation of vulnerable communities.
“The peaceful global movement of the IPOB has formally and decisively disowned this fabricated publication, categorically distancing itself from the false sit-at-home order and directing Ndi-Igbo to go about their lawful and normal activities without fear.
“Going forward, the message from IPOB is unmistakable: any publication attributed to ‘Emma Powerful’ should be treated with extreme suspicion, if not outright contempt.
“Frankly, one cannot but express astonishment, bordering on disbelief, that at such a critical juncture, when relative peace is cautiously resurfacing in Ala-Igbo, anyone would recklessly circulate information capable of reopening wounds and inviting criminal infiltration.
“History has taught us, at unbearable cost, what happens when fake directives fall into the hands of violent opportunists masquerading as enforcers.
“It is therefore no longer sufficient to merely advise our people to ‘ignore’ publications from this source. The time has come for greater clarity and firmness. The platform known as ‘Emma Powerful,’ in its current corrupted state, has positioned itself as an adversary to Ala-Igbo’s peace, progress, and collective well-being.”
According to Ejiofor, the peaceful global movement must go further by publicly and definitively explaining why this source has become unreliable, compromised, and hostile to the collective interest of Ndi-Igbo. Silence, ambiguity, or polite distancing, he said, only leaves room for further abuse.
“A masquerade that dances with fire should not be mistaken for a messenger of truth,” the statement concluded.
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Joint Task Force Crushes Terrorist Cells In North East, Heavy Weaponry Seized
In recent operations across the North East, troops of the Joint Task Force Operation HADIN KAI (OPHK) have neutralized scores of terrorists and recovered a significant cache of arms and ammunition.
Lieutenant Colonel Sani Uba, Media Information Officer, Headquarters Joint Task Force (North East) in a statement said intelligence has confirmed the killing of JULAIBIB, a top ISWAP commander operating within the Gujba axis of the Timbuktu Triangle, during an encounter around Kimba, Damboa LGA of Borno State, on 30 January 2026.
According to the statement, the elimination of the terrorist leader has thrown ISWAP elements in the area into disarray, with several fighters reportedly neutralised during the operation.
In a related operation, troops of OPHK, working in collaboration with the Civilian Joint Task Force, neutralised 3 terrorists during a well-coordinated ambush between Ngazalgana and Lamusheri communities in Borno State.
It said the operation followed credible intelligence on insurgent movements in the area, as troops laid an ambush along the identified route and engaged the terrorists with effective firepower, resulting in the neutralisation of 3 insurgents, while others fled with gunshot injuries.
The statement said troops recovered two AK-47, adding that the operation forms part of sustained efforts to deny terrorists freedom of movement and degrade their operational capabilities across the Theatre.
It said troops also recorded multiple successes in Adamawa State, adding that on 29 January, 2026, troops responded swiftly to a distress call from Barama community, Mubi North LGA, foiling an armed robbery attempt. Two armed robbery suspects attempting to attack a student of the Federal Polytechnic, Mubi, were arrested. One suspect sustained a gunshot wound to the thigh while attempting to confront the troops and was evacuated to the Federal Medical Centre, Mubi, for treatment.
The suspects were subsequently handed over to the Nigeria Police for further investigation. Items recovered include 3 cutlasses, 2 laptops, 4 mobile phones, and one power bank.
News
Appeal Court Affirms Death Sentences for Five Offa Bank Robbery Convicts
The Court of Appeal sitting in Ilorin, Kwara State has affirmed the death sentences passed on five 2018 Offa robbery convicts.
The court dismissed their appeals as lacking merit.
The Director of Public Prosecution (DPP) in the state, Mohammed Akande, who witnessed the proceedings, said that the three Appeal Court judges unanimously agreed on the judgement and affirmed the verdict of the state High Court condemning the five persons to death by hanging.
“The Court of Appeal, Ilorin Division comprising of Hon. Justice Ridwan Maiwada Abdullahi JCA, Hon. Justice Gabriel Kolawole JCA and Hon. Justice Abdul Dogo today, Friday affirmed the judgment of Hon. Justice H. A. Saleeman of the Kwara State High Court, that sentenced the Appellants: Niyi Ogundiran, Salawu Azeez, Ibikunle Ogunleye, Ayoade Akinnibosun and Adeola Abraham to death by hanging for the involvement in the Offa Bank Robbery”.
Another official of the Court also said that the appellate court rejected all the grounds of appeal filed by the convicts and ordered their immediate return to prison custody.
“The court dismissed all their grounds of appeal and upheld their convictions. They have been taken back to prison,” the official said.
The official said that the arguments raised at the Court of Appeal were unconvincing and may not succeed if repeated at the apex court.
It is recalled that Ayoade Akinnibosun, Azeez Salahudeen, Niyi Ogundiran, Ibikunle Ogunleye and Adeola Abraham were convicted of armed robbery, illegal possession of firearms and culpable homicide.
A sixth suspect, Michael Adikwu, a retired police officer, died in custody before the commencement of the trial.
At least 32 people were killed, including nine police officers, two of whom were women, making it one of the deadliest bank robberies in Nigeria’s history.
Justice Haleemah Saleeman of the Kwara State High Court had earlier sentenced the five convicts to death by hanging after a trial that lasted about six years and attracted nationwide attention.
In her judgment, which lasted over four hours, Justice Salman held that the prosecution proved its case beyond reasonable doubt.
She said the convicts “acted contrary to the law and allowed their connections with those in power at the time to lead them astray”.
In addition to the death sentence, the trial court also sentenced them to three years’ imprisonment for illegal possession of firearms, in line with provisions of Nigeria’s penal laws.
Lead prosecution counsel, Rotimi Jacobs (SAN), described the appellate court’s decision as thorough and well considered, despite the prolonged delays that characterised the trial.
On the defence side, Abdullah Jimba, counsel to one of the convicts, said that preparations were underway to pursue a final appeal at the Supreme Court.
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